Experts Warn U.S. Strategy Risks Encircling India as New Delhi Faces Costs for Not Countering China
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Recent expert commentary suggests that India is being strategically encircled by the United States—geopolitically squeezed as consequences mount for its refusal to antagonize China. Sources allege that voices such as Asim Munir and Yunus Pannun paint a picture where India’s diplomatic restraint may now be backfiring, as Washington recalibrates its alliances to exert pressure on New Delhi.
Central to this critique is the sharp escalation in U.S. tariffs—now totaling approximately 50%—on Indian exports. This was triggered by India’s continued imports of Russian oil and its balanced foreign policy positioning. Analysts argue that these economic penalties, along with deeper U.S. overtures to rivals like Pakistan, reflect a broader strategy to corner India by undermining its economic resilience and strategic autonomy.
Criticism of this approach is mounting. Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has likened Washington’s tactics to “negotiating with a gun to your head,” underscoring the unfair leverage the U.S. is supposedly wielding against Indian interests. Vikas Swarup, a former diplomat, agreed—warning that aligning more closely with Pakistan amid growing trade tensions could be a “strategic mistake,” reflecting broader anxieties about U.S. tilt in South Asia.
Adding to the pressure, think tanks such as ICRIER caution that U.S. tariffs now threaten up to 70% of Indian exports. They urge India to diversify markets, reform trade policies, and reduce overdependence on any single partner.
